U.S. Department of Energy

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Population Dynamics Thrust Area

Demographic dynamics—that is, changes in total population, age structure, and spatial distribution—are key determinants of energy, water, and land use. Population distribution is also closely tied to infrastructure investments, exposure to extreme weather, and a host of other human and natural systems.

In the IM3 project, we are developing a new open-source modeling system for U.S. demographic dynamics that includes state-level demographic projections with a spatial downscaling model, and a representation of the influence of weather and climate on migration. We will use this modeling system to study alternative scenarios of human fertility, mortality, and migration, and their consequences for population change, including spatial distribution and plausible ranges of uncertainty.

The population dynamics modeling system is designed to enable bi-directional links with other models, with an initial focus on the Global Change Assessment Model. The population scenarios that we develop will be used in other IM3 thrust areas and shared with the broader research community.

Major activities and deliverables in the Population Dynamics Thrust Area

Thrust Area Lead: Brian O’Neill

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